Terminal War Room

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Messina's at the Terminal — War Room

Deal Intelligence Dashboard | Updated March 6, 2026
DILIGENCE — Awaiting LMA Approval
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Key Dates
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Risk Summary
Deal Overview

The Deal: Acquire Messina's at the Terminal (historic Lakefront Airport) for $500K. Eliminate daily restaurant operations, focus exclusively on events/catering. Sublease cafe to Austin Levy.

Structure: $75K equity (15%) + $425K SBA loan at 11%. Austin contributes $75K upfront for cafe buildout. $123K in deposits transfer at close.

Critical Path: LMA board must approve lease assignment (Mar 26). Everything gates on this. Meeting with Lou Capo (Mar 6) was very positive — he will recommend approval.

⚠ Year 1 Warning: With full atrium percentage rent (Sec 4C), Year 1 EBITDA is only ~$35K and DSCR is 0.49x. The 8% atrium question ($52K/yr) is make-or-break for loan viability. If resolved favorably, EBITDA jumps to ~$87K and DSCR to 1.23x.

Revenue Trend — Year-over-Year
Key Metrics by Year
Revenue by Location (Jan-Sep 2025 vs 2024)
Revenue Flow — Sankey Diagrams
P&L Detail — All Years
Books vs Tax Return Reconciliation

2023

2024

Balance Sheet — October 31, 2025 S3
Year 1 Pro Forma — Gauthier/Gammie Venue-Only Model
Base Case Net Income
$141K
With $80K sublease (market rate)
Payback Period
2.6 yr
On $500K purchase
Without Sublease
~$0
Barely break even running restaurant
Catastrophe Scenario
($170K)
No sublease + can't close restaurant
Revenue Build
Expense Build
Sensitivity Analysis
Working Capital at Close
Scenario D: Minimum Viable Concession — "The Counter at the Terminal"

If the sublessee fails: a single-employee counter café on the historic Art Deco lunch counter. Not a restaurant — curated infrastructure that satisfies the lease while keeping costs radically low.

Concession Revenue (Y1)
$44,640
25 customers/day, prices 20% below market
Total Revenue (w/ Events)
$714,364
Net Income (Y1)
($42,460)
Loss — 8% Atrium rent (~$46K) is the hidden killer. Still $50K better than full restaurant.
Net Income (Y2)
$39,390
40 cust/day. D+ with smart fridge: ~$78K
Employees
1.14
vs 30+ for full restaurant
Equipment / Buildout
$30,000
One-time (counter reno, espresso, display, signage)
Blended COGS
~25%
Coffee dominates at 92%+ margin
Control Level
FULL
No sublessee dependency
Comparable Operations
Menu & Margins
Space Allocation by Scenario
P&L — Scenario D vs All Others
Scenario Comparison
Strategic Advantages
After-Hours: Smart Fridge + Premium Aviation Grab-and-Go ("The Hangar")
Airport Operations
78,080/yr
214/day, 88% general aviation
Smart Fridge Cost
$7,000
Micromart AI-vision unit, $125/mo software
After-Hours Rev (Y1)
$48,950
~10 sales/day, premium mix
After-Hours Net (Y1)
$15,391
Turns D from loss to profit
Scenario D+ (Counter + Smart Fridge) vs All Scenarios
Scenario D Risks
Rent Breakdown — Who Pays What, Per Scenario
Total Events
59
Total Guests
7,261
Deposits Collected
$123,564
Forward liability — transfers to buyer
Pipeline (Event Actual)
$535,034
Grand Total (w/ fees)
$656,528
Amount Due
$486,487
Avg Event Revenue
$9,068
Avg $/Guest
$90.42
Monthly Pipeline (Apr 2025 – Jun 2026)
Venue Distribution
All 59 Events
Key People
NameRoleOrganizationStanceNotes
Lease Summary
⚠ Percentage Rent — The $52K Question

Section 4B: Tiered Restaurant/Event Revenue

$0 — $350K0%No percentage rent
$350K — $750K3%= $12,000 on $400K band
$750K — $1M5%= $5,600 on $112K (at $862K rev)
> $1M8%Not reached Year 1

Year 1 Tiered Rent: $17,600 (on $862K revenue)

Section 4C: Atrium Revenue — 8% Flat

The lease requires 8% on ALL gross atrium revenue. At $650K atrium revenue, that's $52,000/year.

Problem: Current owner marks atrium as "Non Commissionable" and pays $0. This contradicts the lease. If LMA enforces on assignment, it adds $52K/yr to costs.

Impact: With 8% atrium rent: EBITDA = $35K, DSCR = 0.49x (deal barely works). Without: EBITDA = $87K, DSCR = 1.23x (deal is viable).

Action: Must clarify with LMA before board vote. This is the single most important financial question in the deal.

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